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☆ Republic First Bank's failure is not a sign of broader problems among regional banks: Analyst
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRepublic First Bank's failure is not a sign of broader problems among regional banks: AnalystDavid Smith of Autonomous Research discusses why he thinks Republic First Bank is not a "canary in the coal mine" and how a higher-for-longer interest rate environment might affect the regional bank sector.

Persons: David Smith Organizations: Autonomous Research, Bank

☆ China's property crisis could get even uglier. This time, a state-backed developer is the one raising concerns.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

China's years-long property crisis could get worse. There are concerns over Vanke amid reports the state-backed property developer was seeking debt maturity extensions. AdvertisementChina's years-long real-estate debt crisis has already taken down property giant Evergrande, which is undergoing liquidation. But China's property crisis could still get worse. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: —, that's, Charlene Chu Organizations: Service, Autonomous Research, Bloomberg, Business Locations: China

☆ Evergrande's liquidation crisis won’t be China’s ‘Lehman moment,’ China Beige Book COO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

China Evergrande Group's logo is displayed on a phone screen in this illustration photo taken on September 27, 2021. Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesA liquidation order to property giant China Evergrande liquidation crisis this week deepened concerns about China's struggling real estate sector — but analysts say the spillover will likely be contained, with one saying it might actually be "good news." On Monday, a Hong Kong court issued a liquidation order to the embattled property developer after it failed to reach a restructuring deal with creditors. China Evergrande, once among the country's largest property developers, is the world's most indebted company — with more than $300 billion in liabilities. Still, questions remain on whether China will recognize the Hong Kong court order for Evergrande's liquidation — since most of the company's assets are in the mainland.

Persons: Jakub Porzycki, Shehzad Qazi, Lehman, Qazi, CNBC's, It's, China Evergrande, Evergrande, Linda Chan, Charlene Chu, we've, Chu Organizations: Nurphoto, CNBC, Lehman Brothers, Hong, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China macrofinancial, Autonomous Research Locations: China, Hong Kong, Commerzbank

☆ Evergrande's liquidation crisis won’t be China’s ‘Lehman moment,’ China Beige Book CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China Evergrande Group's logo is displayed on a phone screen in this illustration photo taken on September 27, 2021. Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesA liquidation order to property giant China Evergrande liquidation crisis this week deepened concerns about China's struggling real estate sector — but analysts say the spillover will likely be contained, with one saying it might actually be "good news." On Monday, a Hong Kong court issued a liquidation order to the embattled property developer after it failed to reach a restructuring deal with creditors. In other words, no massive credit event," Qazi told CNBC. China Evergrande, once among the country's largest property developers, is the world's most indebted company — with more than $300 billion in liabilities.

Persons: Jakub Porzycki, Shehzad Qazi, Lehman, Qazi, CNBC's, It's, China Evergrande, Evergrande, Linda Chan, Charlene Chu Organizations: Nurphoto, CNBC, Lehman Brothers, Hong, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China macrofinancial, Autonomous Research Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ Evergrande: 'Real unknown' is how mainland China courts will treat winding-up petition, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEvergrande: 'Real unknown' is how mainland China courts will treat winding-up petition, analyst saysCharlene Chu, China macrofinancial senior analyst at Autonomous Research, discusses the Evergrande liquidation order and says "the real question about the winding up petition is to what extent are the mainland authorities going to recognize what was decided in the Hong Kong courts."

Persons: Charlene Chu Organizations: China macrofinancial, Autonomous Research Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ China's rapidly dwindling future will shape the world for decades to come
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

Everything was getting bigger — its cultural influence, geopolitical ambition, population — and seemed poised to continue until the world was remade in China's image. But now China's economy is withering, and the future Beijing imagined is being cut down to size along with it. What Beijing does — or fails to do — to fight this malaise will determine the course of humanity for decades to come. China's deflation worries started in earnest in the summer. Years of overbuilding — by about double the population, according to some estimates — and slowing population growth caused prices to collapse .

Persons: Minxin Pei, there's, Charlene Chu, Autonomous Research Charlene Chu, Chu, Wei Yao, Générale, I'm, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Xi Jinping, Xie Huanchi, Société Générale's Yao, Yao, It's, —, aren't, Logan Wright, Wright, Xi doesn't, Jinping, it's, Xi, Claremont's Pei, magnanimity Organizations: Claremont McKenna College, Autonomous Research, Federal Reserve, Getty Images Japan, Chinese Communist Party, Xi, CCP Locations: China, Beijing, dauphin, Xinhua, Japan, Xi's China, East Asia, Taiwan, Europe

☆ How Morgan Stanley exec Ted Pick rose from 'rough edged' deal junkie to CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Hayley Cuccinello | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +21 min

Editor's note: Morgan Stanley announced on October 25 that Ted Pick would replace James Gorman as CEO. Employees knew they were getting promoted if Pick told them to wear a tie the following day, an ex-managing director recalled. While Morgan Stanley currently trades at a premium among its Wall Street peers, its enviable success isn't thanks to Pick. Gonzalo Marroquin/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images Show less Morgan Stanley investment management head and dark horse in the race for CEO, Dan Simkowitz. Despite enjoying the stock price gains under Gorman's reign, plenty of longtime employees want another dyed-in-the-wool Morgan Stanley loyalist, according to a former senior executive.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, James Gorman, Pick, Gucci loafers, Blackstone, Tony James, Morgan, Gorman, Andy Saperstein, Dan Simkowitz, John Mack, Ted, James, Phil Purcell, Mack, Purcell, Merrill Lynch, Paul Taubman, Colm Kelleher, coheads, Gonzalo Marroquin, Patrick McMullan, Saperstein, Euromoney, Parker Gilbert, He's, John, cohead, Bolu, Goldman Sachs, Pablo, tony, Betsey Kittenplan, Smith Barney, James cochairs, Jim Breyer, Anna Wintour, John Mack pranking Pick, John Waldron, I'm, Howard Marks, Bill Parcells, atta, Brian Moynihan, aren't, David Solomon, Jamie Dimon's, Eaton Vance, he's, you've, Richard Drew, —, Hayley Cuccinello Organizations: Employees, Archegos Capital Management, Blackstone, McKinsey, Getty, Middlebury College, China Construction Bank, Harvard Business School, Mitsubishi, Wall, Autonomous Research, Anguilla, Agricultural Bank of China, Capital Management, Metropolitan Museum of Art, Vogue, New York Rangers, Oaktree Capital Management, Bloomberg, Staten, Disney, JPMorgan, Trade, AP Locations: China, Beijing, Manhattan, New York City, Caracas, Venezuela, Brookville, tony Long, hcuccinello@insider.com

☆ It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +19 min

We've reached the end of an era for the Chinese economy. Unless dramatic action is taken, the future of China's economy is looking less like a young dynamo and more like an old, slow-moving blob. A faltering Chinese economy will suppress demand for commodities like oil seeds and grain, hitting US farmers especially hard. For the US economy, China as a workshop is much more important than China as a consumer. Now that China's economic supercycle is over, that may be the cycle we're about to witness.

Persons: We've, Xi Jinping, Lee Miller, it's, Xi's, —, Xu Jiayin, Charlene Chu, Chu, Chu —, Victor Shih, Shih, that's, they're, Jinping, Zhang, Miller, It's, they'll, Chinese Communist Party that's, Anne Stevenson, Yang, isn't, Stevenson, Linette Lopez Organizations: Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Trust, Autonomous Research, Bloomberg, Autonomous, Century China Center, University of California, J Capital Research, Japan, Nike, Starbucks, Companies Locations: China, Beijing, Cities, Shanghai, It's, Shenyang, metropolises, Shenzhen, Europe, Wall, —, University of California San Diego, Middle Kingdom, Mexico, Vietnam, New York City, United States

☆ The Great China Boom is going bust
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +18 min

Unless dramatic action is taken, the future of China's economy is looking less like a young dynamo and more like an old, slow-moving blob. AdvertisementAdvertisementChinese President Xi Jinping has shifted the country's priorities from economic growth to a "technology and national-security race with the US." A faltering Chinese economy will suppress demand for commodities like oil seeds and grain, hitting US farmers especially hard. For the US economy, China as a workshop is much more important than China as a consumer. Now that China's economic supercycle is over, that may be the cycle we're about to witness.

Persons: We've, Xi Jinping, Lee Miller, it's, Xi's, —, Xu Jiayin, Charlene Chu, Chu, Chu —, Victor Shih, Shih, that's, they're, Zhang, Beijing's largess, Miller, It's, they'll, Chinese Communist Party that's, Anne Stevenson, Yang, isn't, Stevenson, Linette Lopez Organizations: Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Trust, Autonomous Research, Bloomberg, Autonomous, Century China Center, University of California, J Capital Research, Japan, Nike, Starbucks, WSJ, China, Companies Locations: China, Beijing, Cities, Shanghai, It's, Shenyang, metropolises, Shenzhen, Europe, Wall, —, University of California San Diego, Middle Kingdom, Mexico, Vietnam, New York City

☆ China is doing everything it can to conceal the true extent of its economic turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

China's economy is turning into a big black blob. This is happening because Xi's China is one that puts ideology before economic growth. Not because the reforms weren't working, but because the China they were creating is not the one Xi wants to see. Even as the main drivers of China's economy stumble, there will be no direct support to help households power through this fragile period. Known unknownsTransparency in China's economic data has always moved the same cycles as its politics.

Persons: —, Xi Jinping, it's, Charlene Chu, Xi, who've, It's, Chu, Fan Zhang, Zhang, Xie Huanchi, thegovernment, Victor Shih, Ministry of State Security —, isn't, Shih, Linette Lopez Organizations: Communist, Autonomous Research, Nike, Starbucks, CCP, National Bureau of Statistics, Custom, J Capital Research, Study Times, Getty, World Trade Organization, Century China Center, University of California, Communist Party, Ministry of State Security, Beijing Locations: China, COVID, Xinhua, University of California San Diego, Beijing

☆ Blackstone's data center gamble
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Daniel Geiger | Rebecca Ungarino | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

The firm has recently touted its data center investments amid the artificial intelligence boom. Blackstone's push into data centers comes with its own set of challenges and questions. "You might not own apartment buildings in 10 years, but the largest data center company in the world." Meghji said in the company's video that interest from data center users in QTS data centers had doubled "since ChatGPT came out." Gerber said he had recently discussed data center investments with Blackstone representatives and has confidence in the strategy.

Persons: Blackstone, —, Glenn Schorr, Schorr, outflows, Stephen Tuckwood, Tuckwood, Jonathan Gray, Gray, Jeenah, Chad Williams, BREIT, they're, Patrick Davitt, QTS, Nadeem Meghji, Meghji, ChatGPT, Matthew Barakat, Prince William County, redemptions, Selwyn Gerber, Gerber, Matt Malone Organizations: Blackstone, Income Trust, QTS Realty Trust, Evercore, Wealth Management, Reuters, Autonomous Research, Blackstone Infrastructure Partners, McKinsey, AP, Starwood, MSCI's, Los, RVW, Opto Investments, FS Investments Locations: California, BREIT, QTS, Americas, CBRE, Manassas , Virginia, Prince William, Virginia, Brookfield, Los Angeles, Bellagio, Las Vegas

U.S. bank shares dropped on Tuesday after ratings agency Moody's downgraded credit ratings of several U.S. regional lenders and placed some banking giants on review for potential downgrade. It warned lenders will find it harder to make money as interest rates remain high, funding costs climb and a potential recession looms. The warning caught some investors off guard. On Tuesday, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF's (KRE.P) options-based 30-day implied volatility rose to 31.1%, up from 28.9% touched on Monday. "In the near term, there are reasons for caution about banks in general and we have made changes where appropriate," he said.

Persons: SPDR, Steve Sosnick, There's, David Wagner, David Smith, Brian Mulberry, Michelle Price, Diane Craft Organizations: Moody's Corporation, P Bank, Regional Banking, Silicon Valley Bank, Banking, Interactive, Alert, Aptus Capital, Autonomous Research, Analysts, Zacks Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, Silicon

☆ Meet Ted Pick, the hard-charging 'deal junkie' who rose to the top at Morgan Stanley the old-fashioned way — and looks poised to succeed James Gorman as CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Hayley Cuccinello | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +20 min

Employees knew they were getting promoted if Pick told them to wear a tie the following day, an ex-managing director recalled. While Morgan Stanley currently trades at a premium among its Wall Street peers, its enviable success isn't thanks to Pick. Succession has traditionally been a bloody sport on Wall Street, and Morgan Stanley is no exception. Gonzalo Marroquin/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images Show less Morgan Stanley investment management head and dark horse in the race for CEO, Dan Simkowitz. Despite enjoying the stock price gains under Gorman's reign, plenty of longtime employees want another dyed-in-the-wool Morgan Stanley loyalist, according to a former senior executive.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, Pick, Gucci loafers, Blackstone, Tony James, Morgan, James Gorman, Gorman, Andy Saperstein, Dan Simkowitz, John Mack, Ted, James, Phil Purcell, Mack, Purcell, Merrill Lynch, Paul Taubman, Colm Kelleher, coheads, Gonzalo Marroquin, Patrick McMullan, Saperstein, Euromoney, Parker Gilbert, He's, John, cohead, Bolu, Goldman Sachs, Pablo, tony, Betsey Kittenplan, Smith Barney, James cochairs, Jim Breyer, Anna Wintour, John Mack pranking Pick, John Waldron, Goldman, I'm, Howard Marks, Bill Parcells, atta, Brian Moynihan, aren't, David Solomon, Jamie Dimon's, Eaton Vance, he's, you've, Richard Drew, — Organizations: Employees, Archegos Capital Management, Blackstone, McKinsey, Getty, Middlebury College, China Construction Bank, Harvard Business School, Mitsubishi, Wall, Autonomous Research, Anguilla, Agricultural Bank of China, Capital Management, Metropolitan Museum of Art, Vogue, New York Rangers, Oaktree Capital Management, Bloomberg, Staten, Disney, JPMorgan, Trade, AP Locations: China, Beijing, Manhattan, New York City, Caracas, Venezuela, Brookville, tony Long

It will be based in Los Angeles and led by Banc of California CEO Jared Wolff. Shares of PacWest surged 34% after the market close, while Banc of California jumped 9%. PacWest stockholders will receive 0.6569 Banc of California shares for each PacWest share they currently own. Meanwhile, the two private equity firms will be issued new Banc of California stock worth $400 million at a price of $12.30 per share. PacWest had total assets of $44 billion at the end of March, while Banc of California had assets of $10 billion, according to separate company filings.

Persons: Warburg Pincus, Centerbridge, Jared Wolff, PacWest, Timothy Coffey, Janney Montgomery Scott, Janet Yellen, Ares Management, Wolff, We've, David Smith, Nomura, Niket, Nupur Anand, David French, Pete Schroeder, Tatiana Bautzer, Megan Davies, Lananh Nguyen, Arun Koyyur, Jonathan Oatis, Sonali Paul Organizations: PacWest Bancorp, Warburg, Centerbridge Partners, midsize, RARE, Bank, Pacific Western Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Autonomous Research, U.S, Thomson Locations: Banc, California, Los Angeles, U.S, Bengaluru, New York

They are a key source of financing for some fintech lenders, which have fewer funding options than banks. As the end of pandemic stimulus and rising inflation led delinquency rates to normalize, investors shunned the fintech ABS market late last year. Fintechs like Upstart (UPST.O), Affirm (AFRM.O) and OneMain Financial (OMF.N) say they are boosting credit quality, in another example of how lenders have been pulling back amid uncertainty over the economic outlook. Still, analysts say it is a sign the fintech ABS market is recovering. For fintech loans to borrowers with weighted average credit scores between 660 and 710, annualized net losses rose by 1.88% month-over-month to 16.61%.

Persons: Sanjay Datta, Datta, Max Levchin, Doug Schulman, OneMain, Finsight, Robert Wildhack, Kroll, Hannah Lang, Matt Tracy, Josie Kao Organizations: Wall Street, OneMain, AAA, Autonomous Research, Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Thomson Locations: Washington

☆ Berkshire invests in Capital One, sheds four stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jonathan Stempel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Buffett's company made its disclosures in a regulatory filing listing its U.S.-traded stocks as of March 31. Capital One shares rose 5.7% in after-hours trading following Berkshire's disclosure of a 9.92 million share stake worth about $954 million. In Monday's filing, Berkshire also revealed a new $41.3 million stake in Diageo Plc (DGE.L), the maker of alcoholic beverages including Johnnie Walker and Guinness. BERKSHIRE BUYS MORE APPLE, BANK OF AMERICADespite the selling, Berkshire still invests in several financial services companies. Berkshire also has dozens of operating businesses including the BNSF railroad, Geico car insurance, and many energy, manufacturing and consumer units.

☆ Coinbase subscription services revenue is mostly interest income, says analyst
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCoinbase subscription services revenue is mostly interest income, says analystChristian Bolu of Autonomous Research says "it's not really what I would call a core diversifier," adding that interest income is a "common method of growing revenues … within the brokerage space, and Coinbase is no exception."

☆ Quotes: Fed plans broad revamp of bank oversight in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

The assertion in the introduction that the Fed should focus on large bank capital requirements is disconnected from the report's conclusions. AMERICAN BANK ASSOCIATION PRESIDENT AND CEO ROB NICOLS"We take any bank failure seriously, and we will review the findings and proposed policy changes in these reports carefully, including where the conclusions may differ. JONATHAN MONDILLO, HEAD OF NORTH AMERICAN FIXED INCOME AT ABRDN"We're likely to see higher capital requirements. What that means for the overall markets is that the devil is in the details: how stringent those capital requirements will be. A potential First Republic Bank failure could similarly present a risk to the long-term investment strategy of high net-worth individuals."

☆ US Fed plans broad revamp of bank oversight in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Many commentators linked the lessons learned from the earlier crisis to the ongoing concerns about First Republic Bank. INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL BANKERS CEO BETH ZORC"The IIB commends the Federal Reserve's timeliness of producing its report on SVB. "There are similarities between SVB's situation and what is happening with First Republic Bank: both are affected by the rapid movement of very large sums of money." A potential First Republic Bank failure could similarly present a risk to the long-term investment strategy of high net-worth individuals." "It feels isolated, than the rest of the regional bank system, feels like it's in a different place than where FRC is."

The largest U.S. lender gained $50 billion in deposits at the end of March, its first-quarter earnings report showed. That compares to Citigroup Inc (C.N), where deposits were largely flat, and a decline at Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N). Investors have closely scrutinized deposits after the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month rattled markets, prompting regulators to step in to guarantee their customers' deposits. JPMorgan reported a 2% rise in deposits to $2.38 trillion at the end of the quarter compared with the end of 2022. Deposits at Wells Fargo slid 2% to $1.36 trillion as customers moved their money to higher-yielding accounts and products.

☆ How First Republic's courtship of the wealthy led to meltdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Lawrence Delevingne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

March 27 (Reuters) - First Republic Bank (FRC.N) became the epicenter of the U.S. regional banking crisis after the wealthy clients it courted to fuel its breakneck growth started withdrawing deposits and left the bank reeling. Reuters GraphicsFor years, First Republic lured high net-worth customers with preferential rates on mortgages and loans. Morgan Stanley analysts estimated a deposit outflow of nearly half of total deposits according to a March 20 note. First Republic's loan book and investment portfolio also became less valuable as interest rates rose, which is hampering a capital raise. "Wealthy customers were drawn to First Republic in part because they could get large mortgages at rock-bottom interest rates," said McCoy.

☆ European banks face renewed selling pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

So people are acting with their feet and continuing to sell bank stocks. ING ECONOMICS TEAM (emailed) "Most European banks are impacted by these events mainly via the more cautious market sentiment. "It seems like post what happened to Credit Suisse last weekend, two things might be at play here. “European banks probably suffered from contagion from what was going on in the US, where the regional banks seem to be under pressure in the rising rate environment. European banks have, in fact, had no fundamental issues whatsoever.

☆ China's alarming decline could tank the stock market, take down the global economy, and spark a dangerous showdown with the US
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

In the Western capitals and boardrooms, it appears the horror of Beijing's transformation has finally settled in, and the lure of China's economic future is fading. Economic dangerIf you want a clue to just how far China's economy has fallen, look no further than Beijing's attempts to hide information about the country's growth. Beyond the short-term signs of trouble, there are more enduring signs pointing to China's economic distress. That's a big if, and even if Beijing is successful, the slow-moving blob of debt will choke off economic growth for years to come. Xi has tightened his grip on China's economy and government from education to public health.

☆ The Reward Is Growing for Card Lenders but Also the Risks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Telis Demos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

People who need to borrow more to support their spending are also the kinds of borrowers that you generally worry a bit more about. Americans are signaling that they want to keep spending and borrow more. That is a good-news-bad-news situation for investors in card lenders. The good news is that card loans grew by double-digit percentage points in the third quarter across the large U.S. credit-card issuers. But at the same time, the average delinquency rate for large card lenders jumped by more than a third over last year, according to figures compiled by Autonomous Research analyst Brian Foran.

The logo for Goldman Sachs is seen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., November 17, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File PhotoNEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc's (GS.N) strategy pivot has solved one problem for investors who didn't love its foray into consumer banking. Solomon's response: Goldman Sachs is focusing on its fundamental operations while maintaining its financial targets. "Ultimately the investment banking business is a great business, it has always done well," he said. "While the consumer strategy has been successful in generating deposits for Goldman Sachs, its expansion has also been costly in terms of operating expenses and provisions.

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